Chinese will win if the United States trade war?

The focus of attention of the investment trends from last week to now is the latest trade Donald Trump president of the United States. In the state line shows strong views continue to update your micro-blog account on trump, this morning's event support by the consultant Gary Kong - senior economic view from the trade powerful resignation has made the U.S. stock index future reduction deep.

In his resignation, hole, continue to appear in the Peng Bo report, the United States is considering a tax on many imports from China also restrictions on capital flows from the second largest economy in the world.

Even so, this is a wise choice?

A lesson from the war in the history of the exit of commercial war occurred usually decided in the yard. However, these figures show that the United States at a disadvantage. Most of the goods from the Chinese is the United States imports of consumer goods, which can be easily predicted that the tax increase will enable the United States suffering from rising costs. The density is the largest computer, telephone, textiles, gold, a variety of other clothes and toys.

You can not easily find the American retail supply immediately replaced. All Chinese consumption, commodity export goods in the United States more than 500 million U.S. dollars, accounting for Chinese every year more than 1 / 3 of the total amount of U.S. imports.

Your solution will be ideal for trump looking for alternative supplies from the mainland. But it is very difficult. For example, in the sewing industry, the U.S. labor force reduced from 90% in 1990 and spent 40% working experiences in electronics industry, even in the China also saw the jobs to the south of the country's neighbors, Southeast Asia or Africa and then we return to the United States the opportunity is very fragile.

On the contrary, China goods, mainly intermediate imports from the United States and a workpiece. The most important is soybean, aircraft, automobile, integrated circuits and plastic toys. If the commodity tax to revenge, influence will spread some manufacturers in Chinese people can feel.

If you choose the Xi Jinping answer, look at these effects of semiconductor chip industry. 1/4 of the produced output is exported to Chinese, but imports only 3,8 percent of the total amount of contribution, the integrated circuit Chinese. Therefore, the loss ratio.

The soybean is Chinese market is occupied 60% of the total amount of exports to the United States, but it is enough to solve the total energy consumption of 12% Chinese beans. If the tax China soybean imports, companies use agricultural products as raw materials, the farmers began to feed peas do not satisfy, can be in the background of world soybean prices have been at the highest level in two years. However, the most common types of food - pork prices in China - has been 12 consecutive months of discount, so the price of pork rose a bit because soybean prices will not cause consumers shocked.

However, the most intelligent Chinese will "halt the troops and wait". Documents show that, although he supports globalization point of view, in Davos and the strong international forum, the better way is not revenge, let you trump released a new tax, American consumers spend more money.

When these American allies have excited financing huge Chinese (do, n HNA has become the largest shareholder of the German bank Deutsche bank) and the M ch feeling hard heart because your trump - that Beijing is a strong ally better.

The art of war in the famous Chinese".